From Day 1 of this pandemic I’ve been blogging - as a tech innovation blogger AND PhD former pandemic modeller/planner - about what is conjecture and what is fact. And why some public decisions have been so stupid as to be better described as idiotic, delinquent or even criminal. Well, it’s just all so ridiculous. …
Tag: eradication
Over 90 Covid-19 vaccines in development by scores of teams
There's cause for great optimism. There are over 90 Covid-19 vaccines in development by scores of different teams in companies and universities globally. And multiple teams are promising vaccines by September. We are very likely to have global access to working vaccines by Christmas. Can't guarantee it of course. But in the data I've looked …
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A Tale of Four COVID-19 Leaders & Their Pandemic Experts
Nation/LeaderCMO/pandemic expertAdviceResponseResultUSADonaldTrumpAnthony Fauci et. al.* Flatten the curveDid lessMajor outbreak35,000deathsUKBorisJohnsonSir Patrick Valance et. al.* Allow herd immunity * Isolate the elderly* Flatten the curve (later)FollowedMajor outbreak14,000deathsAustraliaScottMorrisonProf. Brendan Murphyet. al.* Flatten the curve* Eradication (Blakey)* Eradication not possible (Blakey) Did moreNear-eradication65 deathsNZJacintaArdernDr. Carolyn McElnayet al.EradicationFollowedEradication11 deaths So, not much to say today except to point out …
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After Easter Victoria still sitting at around 0.5%! PLUS manufacture of local COVID-19 tests?
Victoria and NSW are both sitting at around 0.5% for days now, even after Easter's low testing period! This is great news for local eradication of COVID-19 here in Australia. The Victorian government is also funding the development & manufacture of local COVID-19 tests! Anybody know how that is going? This is important because ramping …
This is why it’s important we try for local eradication
There is now the '80% likelihood' of a COVID-19 vaccine by September 2020! Remember when it was '12-18 months'? An Oxford group's vaccine candidate is about to begin trials and they're confident, and not even quietly! And they're talking September release is possible. So it NEVER was 12-18 months. Why is this important? I knew …
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Pandemic planners were wrong, smug, ambiguous & are unrepentant
I’ve had enough. As a PhD ex-pandemic planner I’ve been calling for local eradication in Australia with closed borders for months now while watching ‘expert’ pandemic planners treat the fortunate eradication scenario that is actually unfolding as ‘impossible’, ‘unlikely’, ‘not to be aimed for’ and even ‘misguided’ with implications it is childish. But despite all …
Continue reading Pandemic planners were wrong, smug, ambiguous & are unrepentant
Victoria heading for near-eradication! The next challenge.
Victoria (1.3%) & NSW (1.4%) are heading towards near-eradication scenarios going on their % increase of cases per day. And it's now really low for 7 days straight! We can eradicate it. Eradication & a MASSIVE testing & tracing campaign Prof Blakely is right that the tough decision is what to do now. However, I …
Continue reading Victoria heading for near-eradication! The next challenge.
Victoria down to 1.8% increase per day!
Victoria (1.8%) & NSW (3.5%) continue to systematically head in the right direction, in terms of daily % case increase. 1.8% increase per day is a now a huge doubling time of 40 days. Fantastic! And we STILL haven't seen the effects of the new 2-person rule, stronger enforcement and presumably increased testing and therefore …
Australia wriggles it’s way to a suppression scenario. Yes!
Despite claims that ‘flattening the curve’ would be enough and we would ‘ride it out’ Australia is now in a suppression COVID-19 mode which could, with closed borders, even lead to local eradication. This is fantastic news! Major social distancing was implemented early enough that near-eradication (essentially near zero cases with a few spot fires …
Continue reading Australia wriggles it’s way to a suppression scenario. Yes!
The real COVID-19 mortality rate. School closures. Plus Vic & NSW down to 4% increases.
A fascinating paper from Neil Ferguson et al of Imperial College, UK, estimates the true global incidences & effects of social distancing and school closures. And good news: Victoria (4.7%) & NSW (4.0%) are down to % increases with a 4 in front. And it's STILL too early to see the effects of the near-full …
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