We’ve been touting Tesla as the next best thing since sliced bread on this site for most of the year now, and privately for around 5 years, and, well, we got it right.

The doubting always was irrational.

Musk’s Tesla and SpaceX were clear leaders in EVs and sustainable energy and reusable aerospace. Even Tesla’s manufacturing capacity has been tested and found impressive for at least 18 months then and almost 3 years now.

And Full Self Driving (FSD) appears within reach. Not to mention SUV, pickup truck & semi categories. And solar tiles and batteries.

The doubting was irrational. And it was irrational 3 or 4 years ago too. A company that created breakthroughs in electric cars and was making 30,000 cars a year was ALWAYS going to be able to make 100,000s and millions of them a year.

Even Elon’s ‘year of death’ and Tesla’s near bankruptcy in 2018 was always solvable by just a few billion raising. The signs were all good despite the setbacks.

I stand by my claim that the doubting was irrational.

So why the irrationality? And what’s next?

Firstly, the irrationality was essentially a case of laziness and/or mistaken bias. The facts were there. The rising Model S & X sales. The great performance. The promise of Model 3. Exciting FSD releases. Rapid improvements in Model 3 ramp up. The promise of Model Y.

You had to be almost blind to miss it. Or be anti-green.

And the way even respected investment commentators like Julia Chatterly (CNN) and Emily Chang (Bloomberg) would treat Elon Musk almost like some sort of clown, was telling.

What traditional commentators missed was simply that Elon Musk was genuinely transparent. He told you what he was going to do, why and how. And then he did it. Often late but he did it.

Because many commentators didn’t understand the tech they mistook him for a charlatan. Big mistake. He’s now the 2nd richest man in the world. And their stock advice was wrong for the last 5 years on the biggest game in town.

What’s next? FSD will be huge and most of the smartest in the game agree Elon’s camera-approach and no-LIDAR and no-high res mapping is the way to go. It means Tesla’s FSD works everywhere. And the beta is looking really impressive.

FSD will revolutionise driving in boring city traffic and boring long haul drives freeing up drivers to do more interesting tasks. Not to mention for disabled people and enabling cars as robo-taxis to become point-to-point public transport.

Huge.

Huge. Huge.

Manufacturing efficiency under Musk’s ‘alien dreadnaught’ vision will achieve state of the art status further enhancing profitability.

Battery tech is looking incredible.

Insurance business? Huge too. Warren Buffet was ridiculously wrong. He claimed ‘how can Musk start an insurance business’? Are you kidding? You could buy the expertise for a few $100K and Elon could invent it from first principles anyway. Not to mention they’ve got the data on how each driver drives.

Main Street was not just wrong, they were maximally wrong about Tesla.

And then there’s the solar business.

I’m betting Tesla will be a $2T company by mid-2022 or sooner.