Despite claims that ‘flattening the curve’ would be enough and we would ‘ride it out’ Australia is now in a suppression COVID-19 mode which could, with closed borders, even lead to local eradication. This is fantastic news! Major social distancing was implemented early enough that near-eradication (essentially near zero cases with a few spot fires …
Continue reading Australia wriggles it’s way to a suppression scenario. Yes!
Victoria and the rest of Australia are essentially only a few steps away from full lockdown mode and the earlier restrictions are bearing fruit: we're down to 5% daily increase! And NSW is in the same league with 7.4%. This should enable us to effectively locally eradicate COVID-19 soon especially given the fact we can't …
Continue reading Victoria down to 5% daily case increase. And why % increases are the key metric.
Seasonal Flu, contrary to strange numbers people are quoting, kills between 1500-3000 people a year in Australia depending on the season. In the US it’s 12,000-60,000. Let’s compare a typical season: 2250 (Australia), 36,000 (US) Flu deaths/year to COVID-19? And what will success look like? Well, it’s hard to say. Let’s all remember that unchecked …
Continue reading What will success look like? COVID-19 vs seasonal Flu
It's early days into the major restrictions on life in Victoria & NSW (Australia) but we are down to under 7% case increases per day (after the number being 25%-ish per day for most of the last fortnight). And Australia is one of the top testers. That's great! I truly believe that pandemic planners did …
Despite Prof Tony Blakely’s (debatable) claim that we can no longer eradicate COVID19 in Australia, I believe - based on my 24 months in pandemic planning simulations - WE CAN, simply by isolating & obeying the federal & state regulations on social distancing EVEN MORE than requested. Do you want years of 100s of deaths …
Continue reading People power can eradicate Victorian COVID19
The effects of social distancing are most systematic in Victoria where the 20-30% daily increase has dropped every day for four days and is now down to 11.6%. NSW is showing good signs too. It will take another week to see the real affects of so-called Stage II restrictions including the closing of almost all …
Continue reading Best viz of effects of social distancing in Victoria & NSW
We can still save Australia if we act now in an ERADICATION mode, more drastically than a 'flatten-the-curve' mode. And certainly not a 'herd immunity' mode. With only maybe a max of 5000 actual cases (compared to 2500-ish confirmed) - given our low death count - in Australia we can eradicate it given our closed …
The daily % increase is dropping in the danger regions of Europe and the US due to social distancing. Italy and France may even be out of hot water (although the latter has a poor death trajectory suggesting it is under-testing). And Iran has been for a while but needs to now eradicate the virus. …
Continue reading Distancing is working in Europe, US. Next Australia must see a drop in dailies.
The only reason we have only muted shut-downs here in Australia, is because pandemic planning experts, in doubt or, worse, academic-smugness, won’t recommend full eradication of the virus. I think they doubt the will of the government & people to survive. I don't think they expected, this early, for borders to be closed. Or that …
Continue reading Muted shutdowns pander to academic doubts of the will of the people to survive
Due to the completely irresponsible initial UK, and continuing Dutch, policy of 'going for herd immunity' these two nations have the worst COVID-19 death trajectory apart from Spain. The US has a scary deaths trajectory too. In this logarithmic plot of deaths , each nation is synchronized to a day 0 of the 100th respective …
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