What actually is the correct approach if a similar disease to covid19 begins spreading again? As a PhD former pandemic epidemiologist, I propose this PSEUDO-ELIMINATION STRATEGY. It would likely succeed with very low cost to the economy (apart from (2) which is unavoidable because you can't trust other countries): 1. Do NOT wait for the …
From Day 1 of this pandemic I’ve been blogging - as a tech innovation blogger AND PhD former pandemic modeller/planner - about what is conjecture and what is fact. And why some public decisions have been so stupid as to be better described as idiotic, delinquent or even criminal. Well, it’s just all so ridiculous. …
There's cause for great optimism. There are over 90 Covid-19 vaccines in development by scores of different teams in companies and universities globally. And multiple teams are promising vaccines by September. We are very likely to have global access to working vaccines by Christmas. Can't guarantee it of course. But in the data I've looked …
Continue reading Over 90 Covid-19 vaccines in development by scores of teams
This plot, thanks again to John Burn-Murdoch, shows the total UK deaths per week over the last five years. See the baseline deaths nicely follows the blue wave (peaks are winter when more people get sick). Watch the 'seasonal flu peaks' above baseline in 2016/17 & 2017/18. Note some years there is very little Flu …
Continue reading The plot that proves the conspiracy theorists wrong
Anyone too cynical to TEMPORARILY install an app (to help with COVID-19 contact tracing) should grow up. You should remember what our forebears put up with during WWII. RationingIdentity cardsAllowed mandatory government takeover of private and business propertyGovernment control of private businessesOur sons & daughters sent to war And you can't install a blasted app …
Continue reading Too scared to install the COVID-19 app? Grow up.
The UK death figures haven't included non-hospital COVID-19 deaths and the government's estimates are suspected to be 5 times too low! This means two things: Newspaper reports have been misleading about the magnitude of the UK's true situation (eg it might be 24K deaths vs 16K deaths).A sickening amount of seniors have been left to …
Continue reading UK’s COVID-19 nursing home debacle is a delinquency of massive proportions
Nation/LeaderCMO/pandemic expertAdviceResponseResultUSADonaldTrumpAnthony Fauci et. al.* Flatten the curveDid lessMajor outbreak35,000deathsUKBorisJohnsonSir Patrick Valance et. al.* Allow herd immunity * Isolate the elderly* Flatten the curve (later)FollowedMajor outbreak14,000deathsAustraliaScottMorrisonProf. Brendan Murphyet. al.* Flatten the curve* Eradication (Blakey)* Eradication not possible (Blakey) Did moreNear-eradication65 deathsNZJacintaArdernDr. Carolyn McElnayet al.EradicationFollowedEradication11 deaths So, not much to say today except to point out …
Continue reading A Tale of Four COVID-19 Leaders & Their Pandemic Experts
Victoria and NSW are both sitting at around 0.5% for days now, even after Easter's low testing period! This is great news for local eradication of COVID-19 here in Australia. The Victorian government is also funding the development & manufacture of local COVID-19 tests! Anybody know how that is going? This is important because ramping …
There is now the '80% likelihood' of a COVID-19 vaccine by September 2020! Remember when it was '12-18 months'? An Oxford group's vaccine candidate is about to begin trials and they're confident, and not even quietly! And they're talking September release is possible. So it NEVER was 12-18 months. Why is this important? I knew …
Continue reading This is why it’s important we try for local eradication
I’ve had enough. As a PhD ex-pandemic planner I’ve been calling for local eradication in Australia with closed borders for months now while watching ‘expert’ pandemic planners treat the fortunate eradication scenario that is actually unfolding as ‘impossible’, ‘unlikely’, ‘not to be aimed for’ and even ‘misguided’ with implications it is childish. But despite all …
Continue reading Pandemic planners were wrong, smug, ambiguous & are unrepentant
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