From Day 1 of this pandemic I’ve been blogging - as a tech innovation blogger AND PhD former pandemic modeller/planner - about what is conjecture and what is fact. And why some public decisions have been so stupid as to be better described as idiotic, delinquent or even criminal. Well, it’s just all so ridiculous. …
Tag: herd immunity
UK’s COVID-19 nursing home debacle is a delinquency of massive proportions
The UK death figures haven't included non-hospital COVID-19 deaths and the government's estimates are suspected to be 5 times too low! This means two things: Newspaper reports have been misleading about the magnitude of the UK's true situation (eg it might be 24K deaths vs 16K deaths).A sickening amount of seniors have been left to …
Continue reading UK’s COVID-19 nursing home debacle is a delinquency of massive proportions
Pandemic planners were wrong, smug, ambiguous & are unrepentant
I’ve had enough. As a PhD ex-pandemic planner I’ve been calling for local eradication in Australia with closed borders for months now while watching ‘expert’ pandemic planners treat the fortunate eradication scenario that is actually unfolding as ‘impossible’, ‘unlikely’, ‘not to be aimed for’ and even ‘misguided’ with implications it is childish. But despite all …
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Australia wriggles it’s way to a suppression scenario. Yes!
Despite claims that ‘flattening the curve’ would be enough and we would ‘ride it out’ Australia is now in a suppression COVID-19 mode which could, with closed borders, even lead to local eradication. This is fantastic news! Major social distancing was implemented early enough that near-eradication (essentially near zero cases with a few spot fires …
Continue reading Australia wriggles it’s way to a suppression scenario. Yes!
Best viz of effects of social distancing in Victoria & NSW
The effects of social distancing are most systematic in Victoria where the 20-30% daily increase has dropped every day for four days and is now down to 11.6%. NSW is showing good signs too. It will take another week to see the real affects of so-called Stage II restrictions including the closing of almost all …
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My Letter to the PM & Victorian Premier
We can still save Australia if we act now in an ERADICATION mode, more drastically than a 'flatten-the-curve' mode. And certainly not a 'herd immunity' mode. With only maybe a max of 5000 actual cases (compared to 2500-ish confirmed) - given our low death count - in Australia we can eradicate it given our closed …
Distancing is working in Europe, US. Next Australia must see a drop in dailies.
The daily % increase is dropping in the danger regions of Europe and the US due to social distancing. Italy and France may even be out of hot water (although the latter has a poor death trajectory suggesting it is under-testing). And Iran has been for a while but needs to now eradicate the virus. …
Continue reading Distancing is working in Europe, US. Next Australia must see a drop in dailies.
Muted shutdowns pander to academic doubts of the will of the people to survive
The only reason we have only muted shut-downs here in Australia, is because pandemic planning experts, in doubt or, worse, academic-smugness, won’t recommend full eradication of the virus. I think they doubt the will of the government & people to survive. I don't think they expected, this early, for borders to be closed. Or that …
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UK, Netherlands have the worst COVID-19 deaths trajectory (apart from Italy & Spain)
Due to the completely irresponsible initial UK, and continuing Dutch, policy of 'going for herd immunity' these two nations have the worst COVID-19 death trajectory apart from Spain. The US has a scary deaths trajectory too. In this logarithmic plot of deaths , each nation is synchronized to a day 0 of the 100th respective …
My new favourite COVID-19 plot
Thanks to analysis by John Burn-Murdoch at FT of John Hopkins data, here's my latest favourite coronavirus chart. It's a logarithmic vertical axis and a horizontal time axis SYNCHRONIZED to start at the 100th case for each country. I at first thought this is unfair because countries have different population sizes but since we are …
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