Victoria and the rest of Australia are essentially only a few steps away from full lockdown mode and the earlier restrictions are bearing fruit: we're down to 5% daily increase! And NSW is in the same league with 7.4%. This should enable us to effectively locally eradicate COVID-19 soon especially given the fact we can't …
Continue reading Victoria down to 5% daily case increase. And why % increases are the key metric.
Seasonal Flu, contrary to strange numbers people are quoting, kills between 1500-3000 people a year in Australia depending on the season. In the US it’s 12,000-60,000. Let’s compare a typical season: 2250 (Australia), 36,000 (US) Flu deaths/year to COVID-19? And what will success look like? Well, it’s hard to say. Let’s all remember that unchecked …
Continue reading What will success look like? COVID-19 vs seasonal Flu
It's early days into the major restrictions on life in Victoria & NSW (Australia) but we are down to under 7% case increases per day (after the number being 25%-ish per day for most of the last fortnight). And Australia is one of the top testers. That's great! I truly believe that pandemic planners did …
Despite Prof Tony Blakely’s (debatable) claim that we can no longer eradicate COVID19 in Australia, I believe - based on my 24 months in pandemic planning simulations - WE CAN, simply by isolating & obeying the federal & state regulations on social distancing EVEN MORE than requested. Do you want years of 100s of deaths …
Continue reading People power can eradicate Victorian COVID19
The effects of social distancing are most systematic in Victoria where the 20-30% daily increase has dropped every day for four days and is now down to 11.6%. NSW is showing good signs too. It will take another week to see the real affects of so-called Stage II restrictions including the closing of almost all …
Continue reading Best viz of effects of social distancing in Victoria & NSW
We can still save Australia if we act now in an ERADICATION mode, more drastically than a 'flatten-the-curve' mode. And certainly not a 'herd immunity' mode. With only maybe a max of 5000 actual cases (compared to 2500-ish confirmed) - given our low death count - in Australia we can eradicate it given our closed …
The daily % increase is dropping in the danger regions of Europe and the US due to social distancing. Italy and France may even be out of hot water (although the latter has a poor death trajectory suggesting it is under-testing). And Iran has been for a while but needs to now eradicate the virus. …
Continue reading Distancing is working in Europe, US. Next Australia must see a drop in dailies.
The only reason we have only muted shut-downs here in Australia, is because pandemic planning experts, in doubt or, worse, academic-smugness, won’t recommend full eradication of the virus. I think they doubt the will of the government & people to survive. I don't think they expected, this early, for borders to be closed. Or that …
Continue reading Muted shutdowns pander to academic doubts of the will of the people to survive
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