Victoria (1.3%) & NSW (1.4%) are heading towards near-eradication scenarios going on their % increase of cases per day. And it's now really low for 7 days straight! We can eradicate it. Eradication & a MASSIVE testing & tracing campaign Prof Blakely is right that the tough decision is what to do now. However, I …
Continue reading Victoria heading for near-eradication! The next challenge.
Victoria (1.8%) & NSW (3.5%) continue to systematically head in the right direction, in terms of daily % case increase. 1.8% increase per day is a now a huge doubling time of 40 days. Fantastic! And we STILL haven't seen the effects of the new 2-person rule, stronger enforcement and presumably increased testing and therefore …
Despite claims that ‘flattening the curve’ would be enough and we would ‘ride it out’ Australia is now in a suppression COVID-19 mode which could, with closed borders, even lead to local eradication. This is fantastic news! Major social distancing was implemented early enough that near-eradication (essentially near zero cases with a few spot fires …
Continue reading Australia wriggles it’s way to a suppression scenario. Yes!
A fascinating paper from Neil Ferguson et al of Imperial College, UK, estimates the true global incidences & effects of social distancing and school closures. And good news: Victoria (4.7%) & NSW (4.0%) are down to % increases with a 4 in front. And it's STILL too early to see the effects of the near-full …
Victoria and the rest of Australia are essentially only a few steps away from full lockdown mode and the earlier restrictions are bearing fruit: we're down to 5% daily increase! And NSW is in the same league with 7.4%. This should enable us to effectively locally eradicate COVID-19 soon especially given the fact we can't …
Continue reading Victoria down to 5% daily case increase. And why % increases are the key metric.
Seasonal Flu, contrary to strange numbers people are quoting, kills between 1500-3000 people a year in Australia depending on the season. In the US it’s 12,000-60,000. Let’s compare a typical season: 2250 (Australia), 36,000 (US) Flu deaths/year to COVID-19? And what will success look like? Well, it’s hard to say. Let’s all remember that unchecked …
Continue reading What will success look like? COVID-19 vs seasonal Flu
It's early days into the major restrictions on life in Victoria & NSW (Australia) but we are down to under 7% case increases per day (after the number being 25%-ish per day for most of the last fortnight). And Australia is one of the top testers. That's great! I truly believe that pandemic planners did …
Despite Prof Tony Blakely’s (debatable) claim that we can no longer eradicate COVID19 in Australia, I believe - based on my 24 months in pandemic planning simulations - WE CAN, simply by isolating & obeying the federal & state regulations on social distancing EVEN MORE than requested. Do you want years of 100s of deaths …
Continue reading People power can eradicate Victorian COVID19
The effects of social distancing are most systematic in Victoria where the 20-30% daily increase has dropped every day for four days and is now down to 11.6%. NSW is showing good signs too. It will take another week to see the real affects of so-called Stage II restrictions including the closing of almost all …
Continue reading Best viz of effects of social distancing in Victoria & NSW
We can still save Australia if we act now in an ERADICATION mode, more drastically than a 'flatten-the-curve' mode. And certainly not a 'herd immunity' mode. With only maybe a max of 5000 actual cases (compared to 2500-ish confirmed) - given our low death count - in Australia we can eradicate it given our closed …
Future21 | Technology & Investment Blog 