Everyone’s pontificating re Tesla’s share price drop. It’s down around 30% from January 2021 highs.

The typical explanation is that interest rates are expected to rise so investors are selling volatile stocks.

Maybe, but I think there’s more to it.

I think, in the case of Tesla, additionally, the company has become so mainstream that now it’s got to the point that simple promises, even by Elon Musk, just suddenly don’t work anymore.

And the semiconductor supply problem doesn’t help. Q1 deliveries will be down and we know how (childishly) fussy Wall St is on those.

Us true believers have always trusted Elon’s promises.

But lately even we are finding it hard to wait to see cyber trucks, better batteries and FSD (Full Self Driving) appear.

Yesterday Tesla announced there would be a cyber truck announcement this month. Normally this would generate excitement. And visibly in the share price.

Nix.

Now everyone wants to see the actual release. Announcements don’t work anymore.

The last battery day was the beginning of this. As exciting as battery day should have been the promises were too far away.

It’s the same with FSD. We all know regulatory approval of FSD has got to be at least 2 years away.

Sorry Elon. We still believe but not enough to leave our money with you just now.

Great time to buy in . . in about a month

When Tesla hits rock bottom in the next month or so it’s time to buy in again.

But don’t worry. Tesla will rise. Up to $1T within 6 months likely (due to Cyber Truck and some good quarters) and onward to $2-4T within 2 years (due to FSD, batteries, Model 2 & semi).