Famous ‘long short’ Michael Burry is predicting a 2000 dotcom or 2008 housing-like bubble with Tesla & Bitcoin.

In the medium and long-term he’s wrong.

Yes, these market caps are a little high right now. We may indeed see a short-term mini-burst in either of these stocks.

But Tesla has a vast well-grounded future in its fundamentals in the medium-term. It’s market cap may drop even 75% in the next 6 months purely due to a lack of evidence-based due diligence.

And predicting Bitcoin in particular long-term is hard. It and blockchain will be players for sure in decentralisation. I’m a little worried about their ultimate cost efficiency and green credentials. And blockchain is a fundamentally slow technology. And in this age of instant gratification. We’ll see how that pans out.

Tesla

In terms of outlook for late 2021 and onward Tesla is looking unbeatable. It has new giga-factory plants in Berlin and Austin coming online. A plant deal announced today in India.

Even if other EVs are successful, they have nowhere-near Tesla’s combined battery production capacity. Every new giga-factory is also now a battery factory. Battery supply is a genuine limitation to EV production now that it’s going mainstream.

Model Y is looking like a hit leading to up to a million total deliveries in 2021 and something like 5 million cars a year by 2026. Cyber Truck and Tesla Semi will be released in 2022 , and also likely an everyman’s $25K release code-named Model 2 by watchers.

None of this even accounts for the huge strides Tesla is making in Full Self-Driving (FSD).

The FSD beta is blowing commentators socks off.

But it will likely take another 18 months to 2 years to be approved for use in some jurisdictions IMO. But I predict Tesla will release functional poInt-to-point FSD including departure and parking by March 2022, and possibly during 2021. That’s based on two things. Firstly the beta. Secondly Elon Musk’s tenacity on this technology.

Lastly, Tesla has battery innovations and solar tiles looking good. By 2022 we’ll begin to see increased EV range, cheaper home batteries and a lot more installations of the company’s solar tiles.

This is NOTHING like 2000 or 2008.

The dotcom bubble was due to every dotcom being wrongly assumed to be wildly successful. Think pets.com.

The housing bubble was due to over-priced housing and not enough equity.

Tesla has excellent fundamentals only a year or two away. Sure, it might drop down to $300 for 6 months. That would be a great time to invest. But then it’s on it’s way to $2000-$3000 by 2022 or 2023.

An ignorance-driven mini-burst now would give another chance for a 10x Tesla return by 2023.

It’s nothing like 2000 or 2008. At least re Tesla.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin? As I outlined above, I’m a little worried about its ultimate cost efficiency and green credentials. And blockchain is a fundamentally slow technology. I just wouldn’t personally bank on it yet. Burry might be right on this one but for these obscure reasons.