We can still save Australia if we act now in an ERADICATION mode, more drastically than a ‘flatten-the-curve’ mode. And certainly not a ‘herd immunity’ mode.

With only maybe a max of 5000 actual cases (compared to 2500-ish confirmed) – given our low death count – in Australia we can eradicate it given our closed borders. The US probably has many times more cases than confirmed, possibly millions. They are in big trouble as are Spain & France.

Here’s the full text of my letter.

Dear Mr Andrews / Mr Morrison

Are your pandemic experts talking (practical) eradication yet?

if not you should let me present it to you as a MUCH BETTER alternative to ‘herd immunity’ or ‘flattening the curve’, both of which involve 250K or more Australian deaths.

I was a team member with A Prof James McCaw & A Prof Jodie McVernon in Prof John Matthews VIRGO group (2010-2012) at University of Melbourne’s Global Health School. I’ve published papers with them in on pandemic planning, for example:

1. Prior immunity helps to explain wave-like behaviour of pandemic influenza in 1918-9
2. Understanding mortality in the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales

We respected each others views but I disagreed with them, and they ignored my pushes to include ERADICATION as an option in reports. I developed several approaches based on REALISTIC ERADICATION involving:

• national & state-by-state eradication
• social distancing for eradication
• border closures & suburb-lockdowns for eradication
• putting out spot-fires
• early release of new vaccines upon safety trials (1-2 months) BEFORE efficacy is proven
• continuous development of new vaccines

Let me know if I can tell you more about it. 

It will save lives.

There should be no more talk of herd immunity and simply ‘flattening the curve’. That’s giving up.

See my blog:
https://future21dotblog.wordpress.com/2020/03/25/distancing-is-working-in-europe-us-next-australia-must-see-a-drop-in-dailies/

Regards – Paul
_____________________________
Paul Pallaghy, PhD
Ex-Epidemiology Research Fellow (Univ Melb)