The only reason we have only muted shut-downs here in Australia, is because pandemic planning experts, in doubt or, worse, academic-smugness, won’t recommend full eradication of the virus.

I think they doubt the will of the government & people to survive. I don’t think they expected, this early, for borders to be closed. Or that some governments would seriously consider closing schools this early. Or going for full lockdowns like California.

As an ex-pandemic planner, I on multiple occasions recommended PRACTICAL eradication protocols but was ignored. Eradication can work if followed by vaccines. You go for the best-case scenario.

At present we are dancing between an eradication protocol & a flattening the curve protocol of social distancing.

The former is more drastic but with closed borders could work. The latter will result in up to 20K young people, 50K middle-aged & 500K senior Australian deaths. Is the economy worth that?

A more serious eradication protocol, which Victoria is heading towards if it keeps schools closed, is practical in a short term scenario where borders are closed and vaccines are released early in 3-6 months as long as they are safe (& proof of high efficacy requirements are relaxed).

It’s our only hope.

And in this day and age of unprecedented ability to remote work or study, it might work.

So that’s how we should proceed.

The other approach is madness and ignores the fact that the people are prepared to suffer a dented economy to live.