
Thanks to analysis by John Burn-Murdoch at FT of John Hopkins data, here’s my latest favourite coronavirus chart.
It’s a logarithmic vertical axis and a horizontal time axis SYNCHRONIZED to start at the 100th case for each country. I at first thought this is unfair because countries have different population sizes but since we are nowhere near the ‘herd immunity’ limit (which would depend on population size) it’s a fair comparison.
It’s a great way of seeing who is doing well at social distancing (or not). Or who somehow has some genetic advantage or somehow achieved some prior immunity.
Almost every country is doing better than China did early on because the Chinese had no warning. But then the Chinese got their act together and have levelled out to almost no case increases.
On this basis:
- South Korea has corrected its ways and is now doing really well
- Japan, Singapore & Hong Kong are beating everyone,
- Australia is pretty much doing the next best!
- Malaysia & Canada are also doing well
- The UK & Netherlands with their initial or continued ‘herd immunity’ approach are in the middle of the pack with Switzerland.
- Spain and Iran might be turning it around.
- Italy is on a trajectory to beat the Chinese total
- France and Germany might be turning it around
- The US has the worst trajectory
Many of these nations are at the stage that South Korea was when it turned around towards levelling off but have bad trajectories (US, Italy, Germany).
This thing is beatable.
If this plot isn’t updated in future I probably will.
Stay tuned.