With the announcement that the UK is going to allow their nation to reach ‘60% herd immunity’ – which means let as many under the age of 70 that can be infected . . get infected – let’s see what that technical threshold means.

See the table above.

An unchecked Covid19 means 300,000 under age 70 UK deaths. And the UK will try and isolate their seniors with ‘meals on wheels’ (that’s actually a great idea), but if they fail, then there’s 1.1 million over 70s dead.

That is what awaits EVERY country that lets it run almost unchecked (or doesn’t isolate it’s seniors).

This is equivalent to between ONE and FIVE doses of World War II military deaths.

In the UK it means consigning 300K young-ish, lively active people to their deaths, including 50K people in their 40s and less. And 70K people in their 50s.

That’s unacceptable.

I believe – from 24 months working on pandemic planning simulations – that it’s possible today to avoid this scenario.

We need to, for about 3 months initially:

• Work from home. More than half the population in most affected countries work in offices. With a little planning and creativity most of those can work from home even if it involves visiting clients occasionally (but hopefully online).
• Close schools & unis. 80% of course work can be done via online lectures.
• Isolate the seniors. Provide supermarket trips via family or government as the UK proposes.

Then we need to be ready to switch into that mode for additional periods of 2 weeks when there are new spikes.

We only have to do this for a year because I am confident that we will have vaccines within 12 months.

So my recommendation to everyone is to isolate NOW if you can and deliver goods to your senior friends and family. Minimise trips to supermarkets (ideally you have a small stockpile already).

Don’t wait for the government to tell you.

Do it NOW.

Check here (& select the top hit) for an updated analysis of the situation in 12 selected countries.